Evidence-appraisal glossary
Clinical Prediction Model
A clinical prediction model combines several patient characteristics into an estimate of the probability that someone has a condition now (diagnosis) or will develop an outcome later (prognosis).
Also called: risk prediction model, clinical prediction rule.
Rather than relying on one test, these models weigh multiple predictors together, often through regression, to produce an individual risk. They are judged on discrimination, whether they separate those who do and do not have the outcome, and on calibration, whether the predicted risks match reality. A model is only as good as its performance in patients like yours, which is why validation matters as much as development.
This is a plain-language methodology definition for reading research. It is general education, not medical advice.